Population Analysis

Goals

An area’s population is always changing because of births, deaths, and movement of people into or out of the area.

For this project, you will explore population changes for a certain area.

First you’ll find historical population counts for the area. Then you’ll fit regression models to the data and determine which model best fits the data and use it to make a prediction.

Project Instructions

Before beginning, review the sample project so that you understand what you’ll be creating.

Project Files

You will use the following documents for this project:

  • Project Overview:doc
  • Project Sample:ppt
  • Project Template:ppt
  • Spreadsheet Template:xls

Template

  1. Download the project template and rename the file as PopulationPresentation_YourName. This file will become your presentation.
  2. Download the spreadsheet template and rename the file as Spreadsheet_YourName. You will use this file to help you create your presentation.

    This file will be attached separately

Project Research

  1. Determine a state, or a county within a state, in the United States that you will use for a population study. Consider picking where you live or have lived, where you have visited, or where you would like to live or visit someday.
  2. Search online to find the census counts for your chosen state or county for each census year from 1900 to 2010. Search for each census year for your chosen location with queries such as “Texas population 1900” or “San Bernardino County, CA population 1940.
  • Note: If you choose a county, and the data for your chosen county is not shown for all the years back to 1900, then choose the state, or choose another county.
  1. Open your presentation. On slide 1, type your name and the state or county you are exploring. On slide 2, complete the table with your data. Double-check that you copied all the numbers correctly.

Project Writing

Before you begin writing, complete Try It: Analyzing Paired Data, an online, ungraded assessment. You’ll practice analyzing paired data sets—a skill essential to completing your project. Reach out to your teacher with any questions you have after taking this Try It.

  1. Open your spreadsheet and use it to create a scatter plot of your data.
  • Enter the data. You want to keep the x– and y-values small so the regression equations have manageable numbers. Use these strategies to make the x– and y-values small:
    • Instead of using the date, use the number of years since 1900 for the x-values.
    • Round populations. For example, you can round to the nearest thousand (4,305 rounds to 4.3 thousand), to the nearest million (2,683,295 rounds to 2.7 million), and so on.
  • Insert a scatter plot. Include appropriate axis labels. Personalize the graph as desired by changing font styles, colors, and so on.
  • Save your work. You will need it later in this project.
  1. Open your presentation. On slide 3,
  • Upload a screenshot of your graph.
  • Discuss the trend or association between the variables.
  1. Use your spreadsheet to find and analyze a linear model for your data set.
  • Find the correlation coefficient r.
  • On your scatter plot, display the regression line, the equation of the regression line, and the value of r 2. Format the line and text boxes as desired.
  1. On slide 4 of your presentation,
  • Upload a screenshot of your plot with the regression line, equation, and coefficient of determination.
  • Discuss how well the linear model fits the data. Use the values for r and r 2 to support your discussion.
  1. Use your spreadsheet to find and analyze a quadratic model for your data set. On your scatter plot, display the quadratic regression curve, the equation of the curve, and the value of R2. Format the curve and text boxes as desired.
  2. On slide 5 of your presentation,
  • Upload a screenshot of your plot with the quadratic regression curve, equation, and coefficient of determination.
  • Discuss how well the quadratic model fits the data, and whether the quadratic model is a better fit than the linear model. Use the coefficients of determination to support your discussion.
  1. Use your spreadsheet to find and analyze an exponential model for your data set. On your scatter plot, display the exponential regression curve, the equation of the curve, and the value of R2. Format the curve and text boxes as desired.
  2. On slide 6 of your presentation,
  • Upload a screenshot of your plot with the exponential regression curve, equation, and coefficient of determination.
  • Discuss how well the exponential model fits the data, and whether the exponential model is a better fit than either the linear or quadratic models. Use the coefficients of determination to support your discussion.
  1. On slide 7 of your presentation:
  • Write the equation of the regression model that fits the data best.
  • Use that equation to predict the population 20 years from now.
  • Tell how much confidence you have in your prediction and why.

Project Reflection

  1. Join the online session set up for you and your classmates.
  2. Write a response to any of the following.
  • Name an event or a condition that can change a population trend. Explain why and how it would alter the population.
  • What areas of the United States, or the world, do you think are growing the most? What areas do you think are growing the least, or even shrinking? Explain why you think that is.
  • The world population is increasing exponentially. Do you think that the trend will continue forever? Explain why or why not.
  1. Comment on at least one other student’s post.

Alternate Reflection Assignment

If your teacher excuses you from the online discussion, then add a slide (slide 8) to the end of your presentation. On the slide, name an event or a condition that would cause the population in an area to increase. Then name an event or a condition that would cause the population in an area to decrease. Do you suspect that either of those conditions played a role in the population of the state or county you explored? Explain.

Submission

Confirm that your presentation contains all your work:

  • A table and a scatter plot of your data
  • Scatter plots with graphs of each of the three regression models
  • Discussions about the fit of each model
  • Your prediction for 20 years from now
  • Alternate reflection assignment slide (ONLY if you did not participate in the online discussion)

Submit your project to your teacher.

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