Predict a Prospect

COM319: Predict a Prospect
Due: Monday, 10/25, at 11:55pm via iLearn

This assignment will ask you to take the role of a GM, scout, or some other form of player development personnel. You’ll be asked to select two position players (no pitchers allowed) from the MLB Top 100 prospects list for 2021 (which you’ll find below). Your task will be to predict which one will be a star (or, at the very least, a solid MLB player) and which one will be a bust (or, simply, a below average MLB player at best). Obviously, since we won’t know the actual answers at this point, I’m going to be assessing you based on the evidence you cite to reach your conclusions. Choose your players carefully, because some will certainly project better than others – and, I assure you, just because someone has a high/low ranking doesn’t mean they will/won’t make it. For instance, feel free to look at some top 100 lists from years past to see those that made it and those that did not. In addition, some of these players already have time in the Major Leagues – be careful with them, as any MLB service time they have is an incredibly small sample.

The things you look at should be the things we’ve gone over in class, as well as some of what has come up in Moneyball thus far. You’ll want to use the classics (walks, OBP, SLG), as well as some of the more advanced (BABIP, wOBA, wRC+, batted ball data (GB%/LD%/FB%, Sft%/Med%/Hrd%)) stats to reach your conclusion. You’ll want to keep in mind some other things, as well. Such as, what position do they play? Remember, offensive expectations are different for catchers than they are for, say, 1^st basemen. Also, some of these top prospects have had a little bit of time at the MLB level already – this is certainly data to consider, but beware of small sample sizes. This is true for the minor leagues, too. Some of these prospects have more time in the minors than others. So, make sure you pick someone with enough meaningful data to analyze. You may also run across various performance predictions for these players, which estimate what their MLB stats will look like. I’d recommend not relying on these for your analysis, as they are, simply, imperfect when it comes to projecting minor league players. However, you can mention these projections if you want to establish what others think. We’re imperfect, too. But, the goal will be to use the evidence we’ve discussed in class to reach your conclusion.

Your papers should feature some background information on the players (what organization are the in, what position(s) they play, whether they were drafted out of high school or college, what round were they drafted in, etc.). From there, dive into your analysis. You can go one player at a time, or, you can discuss both concurrently. But, I will be looking for specific pieces of evidence (statistics), and I will also be looking for reasons why that evidence supports your claim. Don’t just type out a statistic – tell me why that particular statistic matters and what it means. How you format your report can vary, but make sure it’s organized and detailed.

The Players:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects – I’ve listed each of the players you can choose from below, but this link will give you some more information about them. However, I will warn you to not get distracted by the descriptions of these players on the MLB.com website. It’s full of scout-speak, and generally you’ll be left feeling that each of them will become the next Mike Trout. Remember, the point of this class, and one of the points of Moneyball, is that statistical profiles are more important than what we see with our (scouts’) lying eyes. Remember to use our trusted sites when looking these players up – BaseballReference and Fangraphs.

Position Players in the 2021 MLB Top 100 Prospects list: