Provide answers to questions 1 through 3 in their corresponding worksheet.
1. A small retail store sells a particular brand of television set. Each television set that is sold earns a profit of $100. The manager of the store estimates that the weekly demand for the television follow the probability distributions shown below. Demand per week Probability 0 0.20 1 0.45 2 0.25 3 0.10 Use simulation to estimate the probability of particular profits being earned in a given week.
2. A plant manager is considering investing in a new $55,000 machine. Use of the new machine is expected to generate a cash flow of about $8,000 per year for each of the next 10 years. However, the cash flow is uncertain, and the manager estimates that the actual cash flow will be normally distributed with a mean of $8,000 and a standard deviation of $600. The discount rate is set at 8% and assumed to remain constant over the next 10 years. The company evaluates capital investments using net present value. How risky is this investment? Develop an appropriate simulation model and conduct experiments and statistical output analysis to answer this question.
3. The Radio Shop is planning to market one of its two popular models of portable sport radios, model A and model B. The sales of each model after running the marketing plan are uncertain but can be estimated by normal distributions as follows: • Model A: mean of 5,500 and standard deviation of 250 • Model B: mean of 7,000 and standard deviation of 400 The sales price for models A and B are determined to be $200 and $150, respectively. Assume that the marketing costs for both models are the same. Develop a simulation model with 100 trials and based on the stochastic dominance recommend which model the Radio Shop should select for marketing.
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