Deliverable 05 – U.S. Healthcare Trends Forecasting Report

Scenario

You are the newly appointed director of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). With healthcare costs continuing to soar, the Medicare Modernization Act (MMA) rollout and Medicare Prescription Drug Improvement Plan in place, and the possible changes of the Affordable Care Act in progress, you are confronted with potential increases in payments for Medicare and Medicaid programs.

You are trying to understand how to best prepare the agency for the changes so that the efficiency of healthcare delivery is not compromised. As a courtesy, the Director for the Administration on Aging continues to send you data about the predicted rise in the number of older people and those with disabilities. Data is also sent on the forecasted needs of such persons for comprehensive care, not just acute care.

Instructions

Create a trends forecast outlining the possible changes (trends) that may affect efficiency and delivery in primary, secondary, and tertiary care in the U.S. healthcare delivery system over the next 10 years.

The trends forecast should be in the form of a report used by such agencies as CMS, OIG, DHHS and include a Table of Contents, Introduction/Background, Appendices (if applicable), Executive Summary, Charts/Graphs (if applicable), and References. Be sure to include at least 5 references (e.g., government websites or scholarly articles) and cite your sources using APA format. Your trends forecast should include (at a minimum, but not limited to) the criteria below:

  • Outline the organizations and institutions that deliver care across the continuum including primary, secondary, and tertiary care providers that will be impacted over the next 10 years by changes in the U.S healthcare delivery system.
  • Appraise and describe how well primary, secondary and tertiary care providers deliver care to patients using preventative medicine, based on the current climate in healthcare.
  • Detail the impact of the changing consumer demographics will have on long-term care.
  • Explain how this focus will impact providers operationally.
  • Detail how CMS can expect facilities to focus on quality and outcomes relating to long-term care, based on the statistics from the Director of Administration on Aging.
  • Describe how these changes will impact the delivery of long-term care.
  • Explain what policies you would develop and/or consider using as the Director of CMS to address the predicted changes.
  • Detail what regulatory measures you would create and/or enforce as the Director of CMS to address the predicted changes.
  • Detail what additional long-term strategies you would pursue to make national resources meet the nation's need for chronic care.
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