Describe simulation and scenario analysis. How do simulation analysis and scenario analysis differ in the way they treat very bad and very good outcomes? What does this imply about using each technique to evaluate project riskiness?
APA format
Simulation and scenario analysis are two very different techniques for evaluating project risk. Both can be used to evaluate how risky a project will be, but their use depends on the type of risk we’re trying to measure. Simulations can help us understand what might happen if a specific scenario plays out–how many people will die? How much damage will occur? How long will it take before everything is fixed? Scenarios, on the other hand, tell us how likely one or more outcomes are from happening based on past events and trends (or “histories”). For example: if there have been 10 previous earthquakes in this region within 10 years of each other, then your company should expect another earthquake within that time frame at least once every decade!
Simulation techniques are a great tool for evaluating risk. They can be used to evaluate risk in many different ways, including:
Scenario analysis is a technique that can be used to evaluate the range of possible outcomes, the probability of different outcomes, and their impact on your project. It’s also useful for comparing two or more potential scenarios so that you can determine which one is most likely to occur.
In this section we’ll cover some important points about scenario analysis:
Simulations are a great tool for evaluating risk, but they are not as good at predicting the outcome of bad events. Scenarios can predict both good and bad outcomes, but they aren’t always accurate when it comes to predicting very bad events.
Scenario analysis is useful because it allows you to see how different variables would affect your project if the worst case scenario occurred. For example, if you were designing a nuclear power plant and wanted to know what would happen if there was an accident with radiation leakage from one of its units (a “very bad” outcome), then scenario analysis would be appropriate because it would tell you how many people might be affected by this event and whether they would have time to evacuate before dying from radiation poisoning
In summary, simulation techniques allow you to see how your project will impact other people and the planet. Scenarios can be useful if you want to explore the potential outcomes of a particular decision or course of action. Both can help you identify weak spots in your own analysis and make adjustments before you hit “go” on any project—and that’s just what we hope for!
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