You need to do the part B
Task description for Part B
Students to update their individual-based report from Part A (using assessment feedback) and add additional content to this revised report that addresses steps 3 – 5 of the Systems Method (Sterman, 2000; Module 2).
Specifically, students to:
update their report based on assessment feedback for the Report – Part A, and
add new content to the report sections covering (iii) Model development, (iv) Model testing and (v) Scenario analysis.
template for the assignment
Note: There is no page limit.
Title (based on Report A)
Provide a title that reflects the focus of your report.
Name + Student number
Abstract (400 words) – expand from Report A
Provide an overview of the report’s contents. Make sure that this includes any findings (e.g.
the number of feedback loops).
Introduction (based on Report A)
Outline the general context of the problem being reported on (including references where
appropriate), general context for the problem, the approach used (hint: you are using the
first two stages of Sterman’s five stage ‘systems method’), and what the aim of this report is.
Problem Articulation (Hint: look at the ‘story’ section of the UQ Cases)
(based on Report A)
Key questions that must be answered in this section:
• What is the problem?
• Why is it a (dynamic) problem?
• What is the ‘time horizon’ for your problem?
• What are the key variables?
• What are the dynamic properties of the key variables? (show behaviour over time
graphs, and describe what these behaviours mean in terms of feedback loops). Note: you
must show actual data for at least two of your variables.
• note: key variables can include existing decisions/interventions
• note: cite literature where applicable
Dynamic Hypothesis (based on Report A)
Key questions that must be answered in this section:
• What are the sub-components of your system (sub-system diagram)?
• What does the dynamic hypothesis look like (CLD diagram)?
• What are the key feedback loops in your dynamic hypothesis and how do these relate to
the key variables identified in the Problem Articulation stage.
Stock and Flow Model description (NEW)
• What does your model look like? (i.e. show your model)
• What are the ‘stocks’ in your model (hint: these should be the set, or subset, of the key
variables identified in the Problem Articulation stage).
• What parameter values have you used in your model (hint: use the following Table
format)
Variable name Description Value & Units Source
NGR Net growth rate 0.01 people/day Brown et al (1999)
• How does your model incorporate the feedback loops from your dynamic hypothesis?
(i.e. all feedback loops in your dynamic hypothesis must appear in your stock and flow
model)
Stock and Flow Model testing (NEW)
• What tests have you done on your model? e.g. unit consistency, model behaviour,
conservation of mass, sensitivity analysis (note that if you state that you have done a
‘test’, then you must provide evidence that this has occurred.
• Hint: Sensitivity testing is really useful for highlighting important leverage points for the
system – these can be used for determining what scenarios to include in your scenario
analysis.
Scenario Analysis (NEW)
Use your model to run three scenarios:
• A ‘business as usual’ scenario
• Two scenarios that show the influence of ‘interventions’ to improve the problem
Provide rationale for your choice of scenarios.
Conclusion (Expanded from Report A)
A concluding section that summarises the key findings of your report.
References (Expanded from Report A)
Place all references that are used here – include references used for your model
parameters.
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ask Descriptionfor Part A
Students to prepare an individual-based report based around a dynamic problem of their choosing. This report draws upon the first two steps of the Systems Method (Sterman, 2000; Module 2) of (i) Problem Articulation and (ii) Dynamic Hypothesis.
For this report, students will use the template provided (Report – Part A). In their report, students will outline their problem through a problem statement that is supported by a short evidence-based literature review and relevant behaviour over time charts. Students will also produce a causal loop diagram (Dynamic Hypothesis) and use this to explain their behaviour over time charts.