Discussion: Net Present Value
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2 Months50 percent revenue increase$195,000Paying in-house designers $15 an hour, versus $50 an hour outsourcing (100 hours per month, on average: savings equals $3,500 a month)$42,00010 percent improved productivity per designer ($7,500 + $3,750 = $11,250 revenue per week with a 10 percent increase = $1,125/week)$58,500Improved customer service and retention as a result of 100 percent in-house design$10,000Total$305,500He calculates the payback time as shown below:
$139,750 / $305,500 = 0.46 of a year, or approximately 5.5 months.
Inevitably, the estimates of the benefit are subjective, and there is a degree of uncertainty associated with the anticipated revenue increase. Despite this, the owner of Custom Graphic Works decides to go ahead with the expansion and hiring, given the extent to which the benefits outweigh the costs within the first year.
Flaws of Cost-Benefit Analysis
Cost-Benefit Analysis struggles as an approach where a project has cash flows that come in over a number of periods of time, particularly where returns vary from period to period. In these cases, use Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) calculations together to evaluate the project, rather than using Cost-Benefit Analysis. (These also have the advantage of bringing “time value of money” into the calculation.)
Also, the revenue that will be generated by a project can be very hard to predict, and the value that people place on intangible benefits can be very subjective. This can often make the assessment of possible revenues unreliable (this is a flaw in many approaches to financial evaluation). So, how realistic and objective are the benefit values used?
Key Points
Cost-benefit analysis is a relatively straightforward tool for deciding whether to pursue a project.
To use the tool, first list all the anticipated costs associated with the project, and then estimate the benefits that you’ll receive from it.
Where benefits are received over time, work out the time it will take for the benefits to repay the costs.
You can carry out an analysis using only financial costs and benefits. However, you may decide to include intangible items within the analysis. As you must estimate a value for these items, this inevitably brings more subjectivity into the process.
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