El Nino Project and Presentation

The El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate phenomenon which has dramatic impacts on rainfall around the globe.  This has implications for water supply as well as drought or flood forecasting.  The ENSO has three phases:  El Nio, La Nia and neutral.  Your main task is to determine if the current water year going to experience an El Nio, La Nia, or neutral climate event?  Write a short memo to answer this question.  Use the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data to support your opinion.  

In this assignment, you will create a time series graph and write a description of the data in the graph and make some inferences from the data.  At the end of this assignment, you will learn how to:

  • Create a simple line graph in Excel
  • Cite data obtained from the internet
  • Apply graph formatting standards for technical reports
  • Synthesize observed data to support your argument 

Tasks

  1. Go to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/soi. Copy & paste the ANOMALY data into Excel (when writing about the data, remember to cite the source in your memo)
    1. Use the ‘Text to Columns’ feature in Excel to convert the rows of text into rows and columns of data
    2. Revise data so that it is organized by water year. A water year runs from October from previous year through September of the current year. Example: 1983 water year includes Oct-Dec from 1982 and Jan-Sep of 198
  2. Calculate the monthly average values of the SOI (the average of each column of data)
  3. Create a graph showing the average monthly values along with the monthly values from 1983, 1998, 2003 and the current water year (as much as exists). Your graph will have five (5) lines: Average, 1983, 1998, 2003, and the current water year.  NOTE: Since you are displaying the water year data, your x-axis will run October – September
  4. Provide a written description about how the current water year compares with 1983, 1998, 2003 and the average values.  Negative SOI values are associated with El Nio events, Positive SOI values are associated with La Nia events and persistent values between 1.0 and -1.0 are neutral. Based upon the graph and these criteria, answer the following question:
    1. How would you classify the current water year in terms of ENSO?
    2. What is the likelihood that the rest of the year will see an El Nio/La Nia event?
    3. Provide your written summary followed by the Figure that you created in Excel as a single .docx, or .pdf file.
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